Investigating the Effect of Damage Progression Model Choice on Prognostics Performance

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Published Sep 25, 2011
Matthew Daigle Indranil Roychoudhury Sriram Narasimhan Sankalita Saha Bhaskar Saha Kai Goebel

Abstract

The success of model-based approaches to systems health management depends largely on the quality of the underlying models. In model-based prognostics, it is especially the quality of the damage progression models, i.e., the models describing how damage evolves as the system operates, that determines the accuracy and precision of remaining useful life predictions. Several common forms of these models are generally assumed in the literature but are often not supported by physical evidence or physics-based analysis. In this paper, using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we develop different damage progression models. In simulation, we investigate how model changes influence prognostics performance. Results demonstrate that, in some cases, simple damage progression models are sufficient. But, in general, the results show a clear need for damage progression models that are accurate over long time horizons under varied loading conditions.

How to Cite

Daigle, M. ., Roychoudhury , I. ., Narasimhan, . S. ., Saha, S., Saha, B. ., & Goebel, K. (2011). Investigating the Effect of Damage Progression Model Choice on Prognostics Performance. Annual Conference of the PHM Society, 3(1). https://doi.org/10.36001/phmconf.2011.v3i1.2071
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Keywords

model-based prognostics, centrifugal pump, model abstraction, damage progression model

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Section
Technical Research Papers

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