Time‑Series Retrieval for Grounding Multimodal Language Models in Remaining Useful Life Prediction

Abstract

Large language models (LLMs) and agentic AI systems are increasingly being explored for domain-specific maintenance and prognostics tasks, raising the question of whether they can effectively support prognostics and health management (PHM). In this paper, we investigate remaining useful life (RUL) estimation with multimodal large language models (MLLMs) grounded through time-series retrieval. We propose a framework in which historically similar degradation segments are retrieved from the training set and, together with the test trajectory, transformed into a visual comparison artifact that is processed by the MLLM through a structured multimodal prompt. The approach is evaluated on the FD001 partition of the C-MAPSS benchmark under repeated experiments comparing retrieval-based inference against a non-retrieval baseline based on random reference selection. The results show that time-series retrieval consistently improves MLLM-based RUL prediction across the evaluated models, yielding lower error and more stable performance. At the same time, the magnitude of the benefit depends on model capacity, indicating that retrieval is most effective when the underlying MLLM is able to exploit the retrieved evidence. Overall, the study shows that time-series RAG is a promising mechanism for improving multimodal prognostic reasoning, while also highlighting the current limitations of MLLM-based RUL estimation in practical PHM settings.