A Bayesian Probabilistic Approach to Improved Health Management of Steam Generator Tubes



Kaushik Chatterjee Mohammad Modarres


Steam generator tube integrity is critical for the safety and operability of pressurized water reactors. Any degradation and rupture of tubes can have catastrophic consequences, e.g., release of radioactivity into the atmosphere. Given the risk significance of steam generator tube ruptures, it is necessary to periodically inspect the tubes using nondestructive evaluation methods to detect and characterize unknown existing defects. To make accurate estimates of defect size and density, it is essential that detection uncertainty and measurement errors associated with nondestructive evaluation methods are characterized properly and accounted for in the evaluation. In this paper we propose a Bayesian approach that updates prior knowledge of defect size and density with nondestructive evaluation data, accounting for detection uncertainty and measurement errors. An example application of the proposed approach is then demonstrated for estimating defect size and density in steam generator tubes using eddy current evaluation data. The proposed Bayesian probabilistic approach helps improve health management of steam generator tubes, thereby enhancing the overall safety and operability of pressurized water reactors.

How to Cite

Chatterjee, K. ., & Modarres, M. . (2011). A Bayesian Probabilistic Approach to Improved Health Management of Steam Generator Tubes. Annual Conference of the PHM Society, 3(1). https://doi.org/10.36001/phmconf.2011.v3i1.2013
Abstract 134 | PDF Downloads 111



measurement error, structural health management, Bayesian, probabilistic, steam generator tubes, flaws, defects, detection uncertainty, nondestructive evaluation, cracks

Azarkhail, M., & Modarres, M. (2007). A novel Bayesian framework for uncertainty management in physics- based reliability models. Proceedings of ASME International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, November 11-15, Seattle, W A. doi:10.1115/IMECE2007-41333

Celeux, G., Persoz, M., Wandji, J.N., & Perrot, F. (1999). Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to solve full Bayesian modeling of PWR vessel flaw distributions. Reliability Engineering and System Safety. vol. 66(3), pp. 243–252. doi:10.1016/S0951-8320(99)00041-1

Chatterjee, K., & Modarres, M. (2011). A probabilistic physics-of-failure approach to prediction of steam generator tube rupture frequency. Proceedings of International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, March 13-17, Wilmington, NC.

Cook, D., Duckworth, W.M., Kaiser, M.S., Meeker W.Q., & Stephenson, W .R. (2003). Principles of maximum likelihood estimation and the analysis of censored data. Retrieved from Iowa State University website: http://www.public.iastate.edu/~stat415/meeker/ml_esti mation_chapter.pdf

Department of Defense (1999). Nondestructive evaluation system reliability assessment. (DoD Publication No. MIL-HDBK-1823). Retrieved from http://www.barringer1.com/mil_files/MIL-HDBK- 1823.pdf

Dvorsek, T., & Cizelj, L. (1993). An analysis of in-service inspection data at tube support plates of KRSKO steam generators. Proceedings of Regional Meeting: Nuclear Energy in Central Europe, June 13-16, Portoroz, Slovenia. www.djs.si/proc/bled1997/1191.pdf

Hofmann, D. (2005). Common sources of errors in measurement systems. In Sydenham, P. & Thorn, R. (Eds.), Handbook of Measuring System Design (pp. 289-294). doi:10.1002/0471497398

Hovey, P., Meeker, W.Q., & Li, M. (2008). Joint estimation of the flaw-size distribution and POD function. Proceedings of the Review of Progress in Quantitative Nondestructive Evaluation, July 20-25, Chicago, Illinois. doi:10.1063/1.3114181

Jaech, J.L. (1964). A Program to Estimate Measurement Error in Nondestructive Evaluation of Reactor Fuel Element Quality. Technometrics, vol. 6(3), pp. 293-300.
Jenson, F., Mahaut, S., Calmon P., & Poidevin, C. (2010). Simulation based POD evaluation of NDI techniques. Proceedings of 10th European Conference on Non- Destructive Testing, June 7-11, Moscow, Russia.

Kurtz, R.J., Clark, R.A., Bradley, E.R., Bowen, W.M., Doctor, P.G., Ferris, R.H., & Simonen, F.A. (1990). Steam Generator Tube Integrity Program/Steam Generator Group Project. (NRC Publication No. NUREG/CR-5117), Retrieved from http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc- collections/nuregs/contract/cr5117/cr5117.pdf

Kurtz, R.J., Heasler, P.G., & Anderson, C.M. (1992). Performance demonstration requirements for eddy current steam generator tube inspection. Proceedings of 20th Water Reactor Safety Information Meeting, October 21-23, Bethesda, MD.

Li, M., & Meeker, W.Q. (2008). A noise interference model for estimating probability of detection for nondestructive evaluations. Proceedings of the Review of Progress in Quantitative Nondestructive Evaluation, July 20-25, Chicago, Illinois. doi:10.1063/1.3114172

Liao, Y., & Guentay, S. (2009). Potential Steam Generator Tube Rupture in the Presence of Severe Accident Thermal Challenge and Tube Flaws Due to Foreign Object Wear. Nuclear Engineering and Design, vol. 239(6), pp. 1128-1135. doi:10.1016/j.nucengdes.2009.02.003

Simonen, F.A., Doctor, S.R., Schuster, G.J. & Heasler, P.G. (2003). A generalized procedure for generating flaw related inputs for the FAVOR code, (NRC Publication No. NUREG/CR-6817), Retrieved from http://pbadupws.nrc.gov/docs/ML0408/ML040830499. pdf

US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (1988). Rapidly propagating fatigue cracks in steam generator tubes. (NRC Publication No. 88-02). Retrieved from http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/gen- comm/bulletins/1988/bl88002.html

US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (2010). Resolution of generic safety issues: Issue 188: Steam generator tube leaks or ruptures, concurrent with containment bypass from main steam line or feedwater line breaches.

(NRC Publication No. NUREG-0933). Retrieved from http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc- collections/nuregs/staff/sr0933/sec3/188r1.html

Wang, Y., & Meeker, W.Q. (2005). A statistical model to adjust for flaw-size bias in the computation of probability of detection. Proceedings of the Review of Progress in Quantitative Nondestructive Evaluation, July 31-August 5, Brunswick, Maine. doi:10.1063/1.2184745

Yuan, X.X., Mao, D., & Pandey, M.D. (2009). A Bayesian approach to modeling and predicting pitting flaws in steam generator tubes. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, vol. 94(11), pp. 1838-1847. doi:10.1016/j.ress.2009.06.001
Technical Research Papers